Rural Voters and Farmers Are Losing Faith in Trump — And the Numbers Show It

For decades, rural America has been the foundation of Republican electoral power, delivering the wide margins that help carry candidates to victory. Now, new polling data suggests that foundation is cracking — and the reasons why matter for every American who depends on a stable food supply and a functioning democracy.

A Fox News poll released this week found that President Donald Trump's approval rating among rural voters has dropped into negative territory for the first time since early 2025. That's a significant shift in a group that has consistently backed him, and it raises real questions about how economic pain in farming communities could reshape the upcoming midterm elections.

What the Poll Actually Found

The survey was conducted May 15–18 among 1,002 registered voters nationwide. It was jointly run by two polling firms — one Democratic-leaning (Beacon Research) and one Republican-leaning (Shaw & Company Research) — using a combination of phone calls and online responses. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Trump's overall approval rating came in at 39 percent — just one point above the lowest level recorded in this polling series. But the more striking movement is happening among specific groups that have historically been among his most reliable supporters.

Among rural voters overall, Trump's net approval — the difference between those who approve and those who disapprove — has swung 34 points in the wrong direction. It stood at +20 in early 2025, meaning far more people approved than disapproved. By May 2026, it had fallen to -14. Among rural white voters specifically, the drop was nearly as large: from +27 down to -6 over the same period.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the survey alongside Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, described what he's seeing in straightforward terms.

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit," Shaw said. "Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

The Economy Is the Core Issue

Across the board, voters are deeply unhappy with how Trump has managed the economy. Only 29 percent of all voters approved of his economic leadership, while 71 percent disapproved. Rural voters tracked almost identically — 30 percent approved, 70 percent disapproved.

On inflation specifically, the numbers are even more stark. Just 24 percent of voters overall approved of how Trump has handled rising prices, with 76 percent disapproving. Among rural voters, 28 percent approved and 71 percent disapproved — making inflation his weakest issue across every policy area tested in the poll.

Other areas that once showed stronger support are also softening. Border security, which has long been one of Trump's strongest issues, has tipped into net negative territory nationally for the first time this term, with 49 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. Rural voters still lean toward approval on this issue, at 54 to 45 percent, but the trend lines are moving in the same direction.

Farmers Are Feeling It in Real Dollars

Behind the polling numbers are real people facing serious financial strain. Farm bankruptcies surged 46 percent in 2025 compared to the year before, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That spike reflects a combination of rising debt, higher production costs, and weakening markets for American agricultural products.

The situation has grown more difficult in 2026. The escalation of the conflict with Iran has pushed up fuel and fertilizer prices, which are two of the biggest expenses for any farming operation. When those costs rise sharply, farmers who already operate on thin profit margins have very little room to absorb the hit.

Willis Nelson, a Louisiana farmer, described the squeeze in plain terms when speaking to MS Now.

"We're not financially able" to operate as normal, Nelson explained, saying his family has had to cut back on fertilizer use because "we just don't have the margin."

His family farm, which spans multiple generations, is now facing the prospect of bankruptcy.

"It's tough, you know, very tough on us," Nelson added.

Ohio farmer Fred Yoder offered a similarly direct account when speaking with US Farm Report, in comments shared by Farm Action.

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors," Yoder said, pointing to fertilizer as a particular problem. "I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

Trade tensions have added another layer of difficulty. China has pulled back significantly on purchases of American soybeans and other agricultural exports, leaving producers with weaker prices and fewer buyers. And Trump's recent comments during a Beijing visit — in which he argued that restricting foreign ownership of American farmland would hurt land values — have unsettled farmers who are already worried about that very issue.

What the White House Says

Administration officials pushed back on the polling results, arguing that a single survey doesn't capture the full picture of where the country is headed.

White House spokesman Kush Desai described the U.S. economy as "resilient" under Trump's leadership and argued that more progress is on the way, saying "as this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term."

Spokesman Davis Ingle pointed to the 2024 election results as the more meaningful measure of public support, stating that "the ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda."

Ingle added that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," and that the gains made so far are "just the beginning" of what Trump's second term will deliver.

Whether those assurances resonate with farmers watching their costs climb and their margins disappear will likely depend less on what officials say and more on what happens at the grain elevator, the fuel pump, and the bank — before November's midterm elections arrive.