Christian Counties Show Larger Democratic Gains in 2026

Counties with the highest shares of residents belonging to Christian congregations recorded larger shifts toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms.

In the top 5% of counties by Christian congregation membership, Democratic margins improved by an average of 20.5 percentage points compared with Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential margins. That was more than twice the 9.4-point improvement recorded in the least Christian 5%, and the national comparison average of 14.5 points.

The pattern extended beyond the most heavily Christian counties. Counties in the top 10% by Christian membership recorded an average Democratic improvement of 18.4 points, while those in the top 20% shifted 16.5 points.

Counties with high Protestant membership also moved toward Democrats. In the top 5% by Protestant population share, the average shift was 17.4 points. The equivalent group ranked by Catholic membership recorded a 15.5-point shift.

These figures measure changes in party margins, meaning a county could move substantially toward Democrats while still voting Republican.

The analysis compares each county’s 2026 Senate or House results with its 2024 presidential results, weighting county averages by votes cast in 2024. Religious membership figures come from the 2020 U.S. Religion Census and include congregation members, their children and regular attendees.